Category：Industry news AddTime：2020-12-23 15:16:56 Click：96
according to the change of the future development trend of the downstream manufacturing industry, corresponding to the equipment demand of various sub industries, we recommend intelligent equipment driven by technological innovation, rail transit equipment and agricultural machinery driven by capital investment, clean energy equipment and environmental protection equipment determined by resource endowment, and competitive international machinery manufacturers under labor-intensive.
international comparison shows that the proportion of manufacturing industry in GDP and employment in a country presents an inverted U-shaped structure. Around us $6300 per capita GDP, the proportion of manufacturing industry in GDP and employment reaches a peak level of 30% - 40%. At present, Chinas per capita GDP has reached US $6000, and the proportion of manufacturing industry in GDP and employment has exceeded 40%, and it has stepped into the stage of gradual decline. The future development opportunities of manufacturing industry will mainly come from the changes of internal structure.
according to the characteristics of 31 types of manufacturing sub industries, we divide the manufacturing industry as a whole into labor-intensive, resource endowment determined, capital investment driven and technological innovation driven. Through the analysis and comparison of the development history and current structure of Japan and the United States in the past 30 years, we believe that China is now in the stage of labor-intensive gradual withdrawal and resource endowment demand decline. The stability driven by capital investment and the rise of technological innovation will be the key to the future growth of the entire manufacturing industry.
based on the above trend and corresponding to the equipment demand of various sub industries, we:
1) we are optimistic about the upgrading opportunities of manufacturing industry driven by technological innovation, including intelligent equipment enterprises such as robotics, golden card, evergreen, etc;
2) recommend rail transit equipment and agricultural machinery industries with high investment momentum, including CSR, CNR, Xinyan and Jianghuai power;
3) focus on energy conservation and environmental protection, unconventional oil and gas exploitation, CNG / LNG and other industrial chains determined by resource endowments, including Jerry Co., Ltd. and Acer (H);
under the current stock price, the average p / E ratio of the machinery industry in 2013 / 14 is 23.3x and 15.2x. Looking ahead, we believe that the cyclical sub industry is expected to achieve marginal improvement under the low base, and the machinery industry as a whole will continue the pattern of "emerging prosperity, traditional stabilization".
industry demand declined, policy support was lower than expected, and overseas economic fluctuations affected exports.